Data: piątek, 22.04.2022, godz. 12:00-12:45
Prelegent: Dr. Simon Reinwand (Würzburg University)
Abstrakt: The SIR model is one of the most basic models describing the spread and development of pandemics. We give a very brief introduction to this model, which assumptions are needed to get going and how one may derive the relevant system of ordinary differential equations. Moreover, we show how to estimate not only solutions but also the necessary parameters using real data from Germany measuring the beginning of the Corona pandemic in 2020. We also show how to derive some extremal values like the maximal number of simultaneously infected as well as the total number of infected during the entire pandemic. Finally, we point out the reason why politics have made the decisions they made and also the relevance of the terms ”basic reproduction number” and ”exponential growth” that have been very popular in the media.
Miejsce: sala A1-33 (RND) oraz MS Teams